The Myth of War in the Taiwan Strait: Elite Perspectives from Beijing, Taipei, and Washington amid the Yizhou Dilemmaproposes a new framework of the "Yizhou dilemma" to capture the conundrum faced by a hegemony (the U.S.), a rising power (Mainland China), and the weaker third entity (Taiwan) crucial to the rising power's ascendance. Taiyi Sun and Dennis Lu-Cheng Weng, drawing evidence from the assessments and perceptions of directly involved elites from Beijing, Taipei, and Washington, argue war is not imminent, yet action or inaction by each party could potentially lead to detrimental outcomes. For the rising power, overexpansion incurs significant costs, but restraint makes it unable to attain "major power status." Consequently, low-cost symbolic shows of force are more likely than a full invasion of the third entity. For the strategically vital yet relatively weaker entity, asserting autonomy and independence to put up a fight would risk escalating tension and trigger aggressive behaviors from the rising power. Yet, maintaining the status quo would allow the rising power to continue strengthening itself so that a coerced unification unfavorable to the weaker entity could become more probable. For the hegemony, leaving more looming challenges elsewhere unresolved could diminish the power of the hegemony, but getting involved leads to even more challenges.
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The Myth of War in the Taiwan Strait: Elite Perspectives from Beijing, Taipei, and Washington amid the Yizhou Dilemma
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The Myth of War in the Taiwan Strait: Elite Perspectives from Beijing, Taipei, and Washington amid the Yizhou Dilemma
Taiyi Sunis associate professor of political science at Christopher Newport University.Dr.
Dennis Lu-Chung Wengis associate professor of political science at Sam Houston State University and the founding director of the Asia Pacific Peace Research Institute (APPRI).
Prevailing policy discourse on the acute danger of war over Taiwan remains one-sided and myopic. Professors Sun and Weng provide an important counter argument based on close assessment of a comparable crisis in Chinarsquo;s past along with analysis of recent surveys of elite opinion in Taiwan, mainland China and the United States. The supporting prefaces of Ma Ying-jeou, Jia Qingguo and Richard Bush are noteworthy.
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